Case Study - Alan Godfrey
Current position:
Modelling Manager, Non-Marine Division
Biography:
Having graduated in Maths from Cambridge University, Alan joined
Amlin in 2004 as a Technical Rating Assistant with the Catastrophe
and Risk teams. He used this opportunity to work closely with the
catastrophe modellers, providing mathematical interpretation and
analysis of the models and risks to the underwriters. He was also
given the opportunity to research, design and then implement his
own projects within the non-marine division.
When a dedicated Catastrophe Modelling team was formed in 2006, Alan was appointed manager. His responsibilities are the monitoring of the division's aggregate exposure to the natural catastrophes that are underwritten; the provision of technical analysis of both individual risks and overall portfolios and the management of the team of catastrophe modellers who maintain and technically price the portfolios written within the non-marine division. Amlin are funding him through his Actuarial exams and he is currently part-qualified.
Skills required to be a successful Modelling Manager:
- Technical Ability - Being able to utilise the systems
and Catastrophe Models to manipulate data into a useful form,
perform the most relevant analysis and extract the required data in
as efficient a manner as possible.
Interpretation Skills - To be able to combine the various levels of stochastic and deterministic modelling within the models, with information present within the industry to understand, interpret and present results to underwriters and managers.
- Analytical Skills - With the vast quantity of information that passes through the Catastrophe Modelling team it is important that you are able to select the most appropriate methods for performing technical rating on specific risks. You also need to be able to come up with new methods and perspectives for viewing the data at a class level to get the full benefit of capturing all this information.
A typical day
| Time | Activity | |||
| 09.00-10.00 | Preparation | "Firstly, I discuss with my team the work for the day. Modelling runs that were left overnight are collected and checked, and the list of work for the day is prioritised." | ||
| 10.00-13.00 | Modelling |
"Most of the morning is spent analysing the output of modelling runs, pricing the risks that come in and preparing various reports on the results. Quarterly we produce realistic disaster scenario work for the non-marine division, detailing the losses to be expected from for example, hurricanes of a certain severity following a particular track." | ||
| 12.00-16.00 | Development |
"Early afternoon is the best time to be getting on with the projects that we are currently developing to make our work more efficient and to find new and more effective ways of handling and presenting the results. These include working with macros in spreadsheet templates or using intranet portals." | ||
| 14.00-18.00 | Planning |
"Once a good point has been reached with various projects, they are finalised for the day. All analysis that has been done is passed on to the relevant internal customers and we set up the overnight computer runs required for tomorrow.” |
